Our Snow Prediction For 2025-26

What Weather Trends To Expect In Niseko This Winter - Our 2025/26 Snow Forecast

Are we in for another snow season like Hakuba scored in 2024/2025? The one everyone’s still talking about (and probably will be for the next 30 years)?

We're not meteorologists, but from what we can read, all the signs are there to indicate another epic winter here in Moiwa and Niseko.

If you’ve been keeping your eye on things, you’ve probably seen a few rumours flying around - whispers of big Niseko snow totals, colder temps, and a classic Moiwa/Hokkaido winter on the way. So, what are the meteorologists actually saying? And what might that mean for your powder days at Moiwa?

Let's take a look and compare weather forecasts for ourselves.

La Niña. The buzzword of last season.

Most people still don't know what it means, but just knew it dumped a lot of snow. And honestly, that’s all that mattered!

La Niña is a climate pattern, part of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Cycle that results in colder ocean temperatures, cooler deeper water rising to the surface, and stronger winds. This assists the inflow of Siberian cold air, in turn pushing moist systems across the Sea of Japan into Hokkaido (great for snow).

For Niseko, which is already blessed by the Siberian fronts, receives its world-famous powder snow as a result. In short, La Niña years tend to supercharge what Niseko does best: produce massive amounts of deep, dry, world-famous powder.

Will La Niña Be Back for 2025/26?

According to meteorologists, La Niña appears to be weakening towards the end of the season, with the early season set for the heavy snowfall we saw last winter (last December we had 30 days of snowfall, and 4.71m for the month) . Ocean surface temperatures and wind patterns are shifting toward more neutral conditions, which simply means we’re moving out of that strong La Niña phase, and back to 'normal'.

But don’t let the word 'normal' fool you, it doesn’t mean the snow is slowing down. Japan is on track for what the experts call an average winter. And if you know anything about an average winter in Japan… you know that still means snow — a lot of it.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) is always a good touchpoint. In many of our big past seasons, they've flagged the possibility of “near-normal to above-average snowfall, with intermittent heavy dumps.” For our region, that kind of forecast suggests a solid base with big pow days throughout the season.

To summarise our view: Whether we’re looking at another record breaker or an ‘average season’, we’re still dealing with a stack of pow!

What does all this mean for Moiwa?

For us, it means our snowblower must be in perfect condition.

For you, it means you should start booking - NOW!. Like a popular sequel, if people miss out the first time around, they almost always show up for the following edition, and this is certainly showing on our books - we can’t have you missing out on the best powder in the world! Come and join us!